Friday, 29 November 2013

Can the DA take Gauteng?

The Rise of the DA


Since the 1994 elections, the DA (then known as the DP) has increased its share of the vote in Gauteng by more than 400%.

In 2009, 908 616 people in Gauteng voted for the DA while the ANC got 2 662 013 votes.

The DA's votes may sound quite insignificant, given the size of the population of Gauteng which the 2011 Census put at 12 272 263. But as of November 2013, only 5 669 476 people in Gauteng were registered to vote.


Two Nails In The ANC's Coffin

E-tolls




We all expected the government to wait until after the elections to implement e-tolls in Gauteng, but their masters overseas probably started sending them mafia-like messages in the post. How many former ANC supporters will vote for a different party because of e-tolls?

Cosatu's not having any of it. How many of their members will not vote for the ANC in Gauteng?



Service Delivery Protests




Gauteng still has the most service delivery protests in South Africa. According to Gauteng police commissioner Mzwandile Petros, there were a staggering 560 protests in the province between 1 April and 10 May this year. (2013). I couldn't find stats for the rest of the year, but according to News24, there is a service delivery protest in South Africa every two days.

Service delivery protest every two days

560 Protests in Gauteng 1 April - 10 May 2013

Obviously the people are not happy. Will these people vote for the ANC again? Will they vote at all?



ANC's Response To Service Delivery Protests


Jacob Zuma (April 2012)

Zuma [said] that the spate of service delivery protests do not pose a threat to the stability of the country. "We must not create a perception that there is a threat to the stability of the country, there is not," he says.

"Instability come to countries that have oppressive laws. We have no reason to think about instability in the country, people are just protesting but at times I think it is accompanied by a culture of entitlement," said Zuma.

The president also told the MPs that the culture of protests stems from the country's apartheid past. However, he says while people have a right to protest, this should not interfere with the rights of others.

Zuma dismisses service delivery protests

Nothing quite like 'pulling the Apartheid' card when you can't answer the question, ne? I've got a feeling that the 'Apartheid card' just doesn't work with the younger middle class black generation anymore.


Gauteng Premier Nomvula Mokonyane (October 2013)

After days of service delivery protests in Bekkersdal, Gauteng Premier Nomvula Mokonyane arrived with her envoy of shiny German cars and spoke to the residents.

When they heckled her, she told them that the ANC doesn't need their [Bekkersdal residents] dirty votes.

So how many Bekkersdal residents are going to give their 'dirty votes' to the ANC?


We don't need your dirty votes



Graphs from 1994 - 2009

The Risers - Gauteng


The DA was formed after the 1999 elections, but the DP stats were used for the 1994 and 1999 election results. As you can see, the DA portion of the vote in Gauteng has increased by more than 400% sinc 1994, making it the fastest growing party in Gauteng.


The Freedom Front Plus took a nasty knock from the 1994 elections to the 1999 elections, but they've gained significant ground from 1999.


The Fallers - Gauteng


Although the number of ANC votes in Gauteng remained almost constant, the ANC lost a lot of the percentage of the votes in Gauteng since 2004. The break-away party, COPE could be responsible for this.

The IFP have taken a beating in every election from 1994. The party has pretty much lost its relevance in Gauteng and even in its former stronghold, KZN.


The ACDP gained ground from 1994 to 2004, but it seems like Lucas Mangope's United Christian Democratic Party took quite a chunk of their votes in 2009. Do we really need two different Christian parties?

Wednesday, 27 November 2013

Why we shouldn't have 129 parties

Too many cooks in the (gravy) kitchen


In the 2009 national elections only 13 parties got seats in the National Assembly. But there were 146 odd parties who ran in the national elections.

So 133 parties didn't make it to parliament. Every party needs 500 signatures of supporters in order to register for the elections. This translates to 66500 votes, probably a lot more going to waste.

Although this is will probably get them 2 seats in parliament, it could be a make or break situation in the ANC's quest for a two-thirds majority. If the ANC gets a two-thirds majority, they can change the constitution.

The ANC got 264 seats in parliament in 2009, which works out at 66% of the seats. if they got another two thirds of one chair, they could've had the power to change the constitution.

If these pointless parties' supporters voted for viable opposition parties instead of the local class clown in the neighbourhood, the ANC would have had 262 seats in parliament, or 65%.

It's important that you vote for parties that have a chance of getting seats in parliament.

I'd say the leaders of these opportunistic parties are just trying to get money out of unsuspecting people and possibly funding from the government.
http://www.elections.org.za/content/Parties/Party-funding/



Spoilt Ballots


In the 2009 elections there were 239 237 spoilt ballots. Now, I think it very unlikely that someone would stand in a long queue to spoil a ballot intentionally. We can only hope that these ballots were spoilt by people who were going to vote for the ANC anyway, but it's still a scary fact. If half of these people who's ballots were spoilt were intent on voting for the ANC, the ANC would've had a landslide victory and a two-thirds majority.

There were more spoilt ballots than votes for the FF+, PAC and Minority Front combined. It could've been 6 seats in parliament.

elections 2014 south africa


If you don't vote, you're voting for the ANC


This may sound like a cliche, but it's true. If you don't vote, you have no right to complain about the ANC. Go out and get registered and vote!




Sunday, 3 November 2013

List of registered political parties for 2014 elections

2014 Elections

There are currently 129 political parties registered for the national elections in 2014. Another 51 parties are registered on a provincial level and I don't even want to know how many are registered for municipal elections.



The criteria for registering a party on national level are:

  • An application for registration form
  • The name (not more than 60 letters) and abbreviated name (not more than eight letters) of the party
  • A Copy of the party’s Constitution
  • A Deed of Foundation signed by 500 registered voters who support the founding of the party
  • Two sets of party logo/symbol in colour
  • R500 registration fee
  • A hard copy of the Government Gazette in which your Notice appears

2009 Election Results

Just to put things into perspective, I've looked up the previous election results.

The National Assembly in South Africa consists of 400 members (seats in parliament). Of all the parties who contested the 2009 elections, only 13 parties got seats in parliament. The results were as follows:


Party
Abreviation
Votes
Seats
African National Congress
ANC
11 650 748
264
Democratic Alliance
DA
2 945 829
67
Congress of the People
COPE
1 311 027
30
Inkatha Freedom Party
IFP
804 260
18
Independent Democrats
ID
162 915
4
United Democratic Movement
UDM
149 680
4
Freedom Front Plus
FF+
146 796
4
African Christian Democratic Party
ACDP
142 658
3
United Christian Democratic Party
UCDP
66 086
2
Pan Africanist Congress
PAC
48 530
1
Minority Front
MF
43 474
1
Azanian People's Organisation
AZAPO
38 245
1
African People's Convention
APC
35 867
1
Spoilt Ballots
239 237

Total:
17 785 352
400


List of National Level Registered Parties for Elections 2014

Now, to be honest, I don't know why you'd want to run for national elections if you have NO CHANCE whatsoever of winning seats in parliament, but I honestly think that if these parties rather joined viable opposition parties, they'd help to bring down the ANC.

Here they are:



AITUP
Abolition Of Income Tax And Usury Party 
http://www.abolishtax.org.za
AMP
African Muslim Party


AA
African Alliance 


ABU
African Bond of Unity






elections 2014, anc
ACA
African Christian Alliance 

ACDP
African Christian Democratic Party 

AIC
African Independent Congress


ANC
African National Congress 

ANFP
African National Freedom Party


ANP
African National Party



ANDM
African Nazareth Democratic Movement


APC
African People's Convention

elections 2014, agang
ARP
African Reformation Party

ABKB
Afrika borwa kgutlisa botho

Agang-SA
Agang South Africa


.
Al Jama-Ah

ANSC
Azanian Native Socialist Congress


AZAPO
Azanian People's Organisation

BCP
Black Consciousness Party


BSP
Boerestaat Party Of S.A


PBSA
Bolsheviks Party Of South Africa

CAPE
Cape Party/ Kaapse Party


CDA
Christian Democratic Alliance


CDP
Christian Democratic Party


CF
Christian Front


CASA
Civic Alliance Of South Africa

...
Civic Independent

...
Community Of South Africa

elections 2014 cope
COPE
Congress Of The People

CCRM
Corrections & Civil Rights Movement

DPF
Dabalorivhuwa Patriotic Front

DAP
Democratic Action Party

elections 2014 da
DA
Democratic Alliance
DCP
Democratic Christian Party

DLP
Democratic Labour Party

DM
Democratic Movement


DP
Democratic Party



DVSVSA
Die Volk Stem Van Suider Afrika


DPSA
Dikwankwetla Party Of South Africa


DDF
Direct Democracy Forum
elections 2014 eff

EFF
Economic Freedom Fighters

ECOPEACE
Ecopeace


FACO
Federal African Convention

FEDCON
Federal Congress


FVP
Federale Vryheidsparty




FINLA
First Nation Liberation Alliance



GLHC
Gay, Lesbian And Handicapped Congress

GPP
God's People's Party




GKSA
Great Kongress Of South Africa


ICOSA
Independent Civic Organisation Of South Africa

ID
Independent Democrats
IRASA
Independent Ratepayers Association Of Sa

elections 2014 ifp
IFP
Inkatha Freedom Party
IRC
International Revelation Congress

JP
Justice Party


KISS
Keep It Straight And Simple

KKAAP
Khoisan Kingdom And All People

...
Khoisan Party


KUF
Khoisan United Front


KP
Konserwatiewe/ Conservative Party

KZNTA
Kwa-Zulu Natal Transport Alliance


LEKGOTLA
Lekgotla For Democracy Advancement

...
Liberal People's Party



MECA
Merafong Civic Association


MF
Minority Front


MAMA
Moqhaka Apostolic Ministers Association

MDP
Movement Democratic Party

MP
Mpumalanga Party


MPF
Mzantsi People's Front


NAD
National Alliance For Democracy

NCDP
National Christian Democratic Party

NCA
National Convention Of Azania

NADECO
National Democratic Convention

NFP
National Freedom Party

NICO
National Independant Civic Organisation

NIP
National Independent Party

NP
National Party South Africa
NAPEMO
National Peoples Movement


NPP
National People's Party



NRP
National Republican Party


elections 2014 pac
NCP
Nationalist Coloured Party


NLCP
Nehemiah Liberation Christian Party


NVP
New Vision Party



PAC
Pan Africanist Congress Of Azania
PAM
Pan Africanist Movement



POPPAD
Parliament Of Polls Practical Administration And Diplomats

PAMSA
Patriotic Movemement Of South Africa



PJC
Peace And Justice Congress
PDDP
People With Disability Democratic Party

PAP
People's African Party

PAL
Peoples Alliance
PCO
People's Civic Organisation

PDM
People's Democratic Movement
PEDP
People's Democratic Party
PPSA
People's Party Of South Africa
PRP
Poelano Revelation Party
RDP
Regte Demokratiese Party
RP
Regte Party/Right Party
RLP
Royal Loyal Progress

SWPP
Security Workers Political Party
Simunye
Simunye In Christ Organisation
SPP
Sindawonye Progressive Party
SDP
Social Democratic Party

SGC
Socialist Green Coalition
SAF
South Africa First


SAPP
South Africa People's Party

SABP
South African Business Party

SACSDM
South African Civic Social Development Movement
elections 2014 sacp
SACP
South African Communist Party

SADECO
South African Democratic Congress

SAMEBA
South African Maintanance And Estate Beneficiaries Ass
SHAPE
South African People For Equality

SAFPA
South African Political Alliance

SAPP
South African Political Party

SAPCO
South African Progressive Civic Organisation
EMSA
The Employment Movement Of South Africa
GPGP
The Green Party Of South Africa

TPICO
The Peoples Independent Civic Organisation
TRC
The Real Congress


TRP
The Real Party
http://www.real.org.za

SOPA
The Socialist Party Of Azania


TFP
True Freedom Party



TA
Truly Alliance



ULIRA
Ubumbano Lwesizwe Independent Residence Association
UBUMBANO
Ubumbano Lwesizwe Sabangoni

UBUNTU
Ubuntu Party


UDF
Umnotho Democratic Front

UPP
Unemployed People's Party

elections 2014 udm
UCDP
United Christian Democratic Party
UNICO
United Congress

UDECO
United Democratic Civic Organisation
UDM
United Democratic Movement
UF
United Front

UIF
United Independent Front
URF
United Residents Front

USAO
United State Of Africa Organisation
elections 2014 vf
UCOSA
Universal Civics Of South Africa
UP
Universal Party

VF+
Vryheidsfront Plus
http://www.vf.co.za
WCC
Western Cape Community
WF
Women Forward


WASP
Workers And Socialist Party

WIVP
Workers International Vanguard Party
workersinternational.org.za
WP
Workers Party




WSM
World Solidarity Movement
XP
Ximoko Party